This is great that Bitcoin can recover 50% within three weeks in 2023. Recent market rally makes people more confident to invest in the risky asset such as crypto. The only problem is that we are still in the bear market.
ChatGPT suggested that:
A bear market is a period of declining stock prices, typically defined as a decline of 20% or more from recent highs. The end of a bear market is typically marked by a sustained period of rising stock prices, often accompanied by increased investor confidence and economic growth. It's worth noting that determining the exact end of a bear market can be difficult, as stock prices may fluctuate before fully recovering. Additionally, bear markets can vary in duration and severity, and it's possible for a bear market to transition into a bull market without fully recovering to pre-bear market levels.
It seems the recent recovery with its intensity to climb back to $23K for Bitcoin, is a big win but here are some indications that the bear market does not ease and it will come back soon.
One of the indicators is that the Fed does not ease the constraint of the monetary policy and interest rates will continue rising even though the inflation cools down.
It really depends on the Fed's goal to bring the down to 2% of the inflation rate. The Fed will drive the economy to become slower to approach as close as possible to 2% inflation. This may include rising interest rates and forcing to cool down the labor market.
What drive the market to go up are whales and institutional investors, if they do not feel the right time to invest, the market is likely bearish.
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